Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d8b…e621 crypto 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-3%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%193W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$172
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$126
sports 38% −$123
other 1% −$3
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -17.2% -25.1% 54% 43% -10.8%
≤30d 273 -9.1% -17.7% 63% 52% -14.7%
≤90d 310 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 51% -14.3%
all 310 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 51% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 51% -14.3%
10% -25.5% 27% -22.5%
15% -32.7% 16% -30.0%
20% -39.3% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses193 / 117
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)310 / 310
History coverage43d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 310 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$34 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$12 +44%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$12 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $23 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 854 history records