Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d8b…7765 other 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 22% −$23
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% +$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage128d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $450 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $372 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $266 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $725 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $690 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $429 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $304 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $280 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $442 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $324 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $367 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 06 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $419 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $454 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 9h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 10h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 15h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 17h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 18h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 24h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 31h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 34h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 36h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 38h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 39h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 40h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 43h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 45h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.44 · official $52.44 (match) · 1302 history records