Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d89…b1bc other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-8%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$5
crypto 34% −$7
world 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤90d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.2%
all 3 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -16.2%
10% -23.6% 0% -24.2%
15% -30.9% 0% -31.6%
20% -37.7% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 23 $50 −$5 -10%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 22 $72 −$7 -10%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $45 1h
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 4h
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 4h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $65 21h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 21h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 21h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 21h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 21h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 23h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.79 · official $48.79 (match) · 11 history records