Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d89…8143 crypto 158 markets active 8h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+6%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%70W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$0
14 days−$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 38% -9.6%
≤30d 158 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 41% -6.8%
≤90d 158 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 41% -6.8%
all 158 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 41% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 41% -6.8%
10% -21.8% 34% -15.8%
15% -29.4% 28% -23.9%
20% -36.3% 18% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses70 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage29d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1688%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records