Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6D 0x6d88…1d65 other 4 markets active 3h ago coverage 152d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+37%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$115
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$115
politics 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.1% +10.4% 100% 50% +23.2%
≤30d 2 +22.1% +10.4% 100% 50% +23.2%
≤90d 2 +22.1% +10.4% 100% 50% +23.2%
all 4 -27.2% -34.2% 50% 25% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 25% +16.3%
10% -40.5% 25% +5.2%
15% -46.2% 25% -5.0%
20% -51.5% 0% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$9 · ×6.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.72 per $1 lost it wins $6.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage152d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $306 +$114 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $17 −$9 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $420 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $306 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 9d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 22¢ $8 143d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 150d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records