Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d86…900b crypto 62 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$58
other 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -9.8% -18.3% 44% 42% -15.6%
≤30d 62 -9.8% -18.3% 44% 42% -15.6%
≤90d 62 -9.8% -18.3% 44% 42% -15.6%
all 62 -9.8% -18.3% 44% 42% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 42% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 37% -23.7%
15% -33.3% 32% -31.1%
20% -39.8% 31% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $127 −$53 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$3 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records