Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d82…9e66 weather 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$107 (+11%) realized +$50 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.6% -12.7% 62% 50% +7.3%
≤30d 8 -3.6% -12.7% 62% 50% +7.3%
≤90d 8 -3.6% -12.7% 62% 50% +7.3%
all 8 -3.6% -12.7% 62% 50% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 50% +7.3%
10% -21.1% 38% -3.0%
15% -28.7% 38% -12.4%
20% -35.7% 25% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Yes 64¢ 97¢ $179 $272 +$93 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $79 $73 −$5 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? No 79¢ 80¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $110 +$45 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $137 +$85 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 −$63 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$19 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 27m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $81 31m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $52 31m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 71¢ $58 56m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 57m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $51 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $110 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $78 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $59 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.89 · official $413.89 (match) · 45 history records