trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 96¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 63¢ | 62¢ | $19 | $19 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 93¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$8 | +83% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 12 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $22 | +$2 | +11% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 10 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 08 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Jun 08 | $27 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 05 | $10 | −$3 | -29% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 05 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | Jun 04 | $10 | −$4 | -42% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Jun 04 | $10 | −$3 | -27% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO | Jun 02 | $7 | −$1 | -14% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +8.9% | -1.5% | 83% | 17% | -3.7% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 61% | 11% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 61% | 11% | -8.9% |
| all | 18 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 61% | 11% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 11% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 6% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 6% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 6% | -32.9% |