Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d7e…a7b0 crypto 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,447 (-12%) realized −$16,202 · open −$245
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%255W / 174L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$353
7 days−$313
14 days−$2,949
30 days−$4,984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$4,027
other 28% −$5,874
politics 25% −$5,272
world 6% −$568
economics 2% −$254
sports 2% −$963
tech 1% +$67
culture 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 40% -32.1%
≤30d 29 -18.7% -26.4% 59% 24% -37.6%
≤90d 144 -6.2% -15.1% 58% 31% -21.0%
all 429 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 30% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 30% -20.7%
10% -24.2% 17% -28.3%
15% -31.5% 7% -35.2%
20% -38.3% 4% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$163 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$1,770
Realized−$16,202
Unrealized−$245
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses255 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)429 / 438
History coverage555d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 78¢ $500 $552 +$52 (+10%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 74¢ 95¢ $276 $355 +$79 (+29%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $400 $324 −$76 (-19%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $143 $145 +$3 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 90¢ $20 $139 +$119 (+594%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $105 $98 −$7 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 38¢ $110 $70 −$40 (-37%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $122 $61 −$61 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ $340 $27 −$313 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $357 −$357 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$53 -41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $257 +$19 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$20 +102%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $202 +$45 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 06 $3,792 −$1,721 -45%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 06 $1,449 −$589 -41%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 03 $793 +$34 +4%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 03 $3,379 +$165 +5%
Will Liberal Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 01 $544 −$472 -87%
Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 01 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $103 −$67 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7AM ET May 31 $204 +$2 +1%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? May 24 $136 −$118 -86%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t May 24 $2,214 −$2,069 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $194 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 24 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after May 22 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $731 +$32 +4%
Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week? May 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET May 19 $80 +$14 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $696 +$214 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 16 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den May 16 $60 −$50 -83%
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 pa May 16 $10 −$7 -69%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? May 14 $64 −$32 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $69 +$7 +10%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den May 13 $192 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 12 $42 +$41 +98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 May 12 $30 −$18 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $101 −$48 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3PM ET May 09 $104 −$34 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET May 09 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET May 08 $201 −$49 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $153 +$66 +43%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 08 $93 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 06 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 06 $707 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET May 04 $301 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $144 59m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $86 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 40¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 68¢ $10 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $107 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 22¢ $197 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $80 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $277 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $257 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $122 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $40 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $100 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 4d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $507 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $200 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $230 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $20 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 87¢ $40 4d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 80¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $110 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $160 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,770.33 · official $1,770.33 (match) · 2266 history records