Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d7e…3248 crypto 483 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,124 (-2%) realized −$1,732 · open +$608
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%124W / 353L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,896
sports 17% −$1,683
world 3% −$832
other 1% −$171
finance 1% +$452
economics 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -76.7% -78.9% 12% 9% -77.9%
≤30d 156 -12.9% -21.2% 27% 25% -14.6%
≤90d 451 -27.8% -34.7% 25% 23% -20.1%
all 477 -25.0% -32.2% 26% 24% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 24% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 22% -25.0%
15% -44.6% 21% -32.2%
20% -50.0% 18% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$95 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,402
Realized−$1,732
Unrealized+$608
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses124 / 353
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions6
Markets (closed)477 / 483
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 5¢ 15¢ $270 $800 +$530 (+197%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $272 $362 +$89 (+33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No 1¢ 1¢ $123 $89 −$34 (-28%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? No 2¢ 4¢ $40 $78 +$39 (+98%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $36 $46 +$11 (+30%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $53 $27 −$27 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $398 +$50 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $298 −$258 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $261 +$322 +124%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $181 −$181 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $223 +$20 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $152 −$131 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$44 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $256 −$112 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $557 −$557 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $548 −$548 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $970 −$970 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $236 −$185 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $440 +$1,127 +256%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $570 +$655 +115%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $697 −$396 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $732 −$502 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $802 −$802 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $222 −$222 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $298 −$298 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $675 −$675 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $205 −$202 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $377 +$298 +79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,037 −$602 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $221 +$86 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $105 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $114 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $448 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $398 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $56 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $42 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $16 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $11 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,401.68 · official $1,410.77 (match) · 3500 history records