Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d77…a694 weather 1063 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,310 (+17%) realized +$6,305 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%787W / 303L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day88.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$473
other 0% −$35
politics 0% +$22
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -30.7% -37.3% 50% 25% -14.7%
≤30d 1047 -6.0% -14.9% 71% 28% -9.7%
≤90d 1090 -5.6% -14.6% 72% 27% -9.3%
all 1090 -5.6% -14.6% 72% 27% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 27% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 19% -17.9%
15% -30.2% 15% -25.9%
20% -37.1% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,701
Realized+$6,305
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses787 / 303
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions49
Markets (closed)1090 / 1063
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day88.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 1090 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? No 96¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 25? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 25? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? No 97¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25? No 95¢ 98¢ $47 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25? No 95¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? No 95¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? No 85¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25? No 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? No 85¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? No 93¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? No 70¢ 90¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? No 60¢ 88¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? No 60¢ 83¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 25? No 85¢ 83¢ $42 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? No 74¢ 78¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? No 60¢ 75¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? No 70¢ 74¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on April 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 24 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4? Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 1? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 1? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 1? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 19? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 14? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 1? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C or below on April 25 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 1? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 2 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 4? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $46 1m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 85¢ $42 2m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $48 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $49 6m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $49 13m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $13 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $40 27m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $14 37m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $14 49m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 52¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 52¢ $7 51m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 52¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $4 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $4 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $4 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 70¢ $36 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,701.00 · official $1,704.23 (match) · 3500 history records