Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d75…441c other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2
sports 40% −$2
crypto 9% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage85d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R Jun 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 28m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $71 35m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 44m
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,227 52m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $24 59m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $839 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $334 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $115 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $86 74d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 74d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $73 74d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 74d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $72 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 74d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 74d
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 99¢ $112 79d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 99¢ $13 79d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $83 79d
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 79d
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 79d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 99¢ $15 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $57 80d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 99¢ $28 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records