Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d72…c356 sports 1176 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-1%) realized −$258 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%574W / 599L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$6
14 days+$84
30 days−$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,775
other 7% −$17
world 1% +$20
finance 0% −$101
crypto 0% −$82
politics 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 48% -8.0%
≤30d 272 -13.4% -21.6% 46% 42% -16.6%
≤90d 901 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 47% -15.0%
all 1173 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 47% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 47% -14.1%
10% -20.9% 45% -22.3%
15% -28.6% 41% -29.8%
20% -35.6% 37% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$258
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses574 / 599
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1173 / 1176
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 75¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Anastasia Potapova 53¢ 46¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 12¢ $44 $8 −$35 (-81%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $11 +$3 +32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $141 +$16 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$21 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $13 +$17 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 +$8 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$82 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$17 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $78 +$42 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$41 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 +$56 +413%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $37 −$36 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $19 −$18 -98%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $23 +$7 +29%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $42 −$4 -9%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $57 −$5 -10%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $27 +$12 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 +$41 +152%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$29 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +41%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $92 −$91 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $77 −$27 -35%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $91 −$27 -29%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $18 −$4 -22%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $70 −$49 -70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $23 −$23 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $8 +$12 +163%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $28 +$7 +26%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $11 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $17 +$11 +66%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $12 +$4 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 71¢ $14 0m
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 53¢ $11 2m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 75¢ $15 1h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 53¢ $11 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 100¢ $135 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 95¢ $57 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 88¢ $22 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 76¢ $23 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 87¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 87¢ $43 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 86¢ $17 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $10 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $30 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $42 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $141 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $10 20h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $13 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $16 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 39¢ $12 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.43 · official $38.43 (match) · 3500 history records