Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6D 0x6d6a…c011 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$809 (-27%) realized −$801 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1,249
other 36% +$240
politics 17% +$196
crypto 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -6.7% -15.6% 33% 33% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 33% -40.6%
10% -23.7% 33% -46.2%
15% -31.0% 33% -51.4%
20% -37.8% 17% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$412 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$801
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage572d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $142 $138 −$4 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 18 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jul 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jul 16 $200 +$643 +321%
Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jul 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jul 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 02 $511 +$196 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.27 · official $575.37 (match) · 18 history records