Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6d68…bcc2 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$257
other 30% +$429
sports 8% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.0% -27.6% 25% 25% +6.8%
≤30d 12 -20.0% -27.6% 25% 25% +6.8%
≤90d 12 -20.0% -27.6% 25% 25% +6.8%
all 12 -20.0% -27.6% 25% 25% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 25% +6.8%
10% -34.5% 25% -3.4%
15% -40.8% 17% -12.8%
20% -46.6% 17% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$59 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$271 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $98 +$362 +368%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $195 +$67 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $61 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 21¢ $98 40h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND England to score first vs. Ghana? AND Will En BUY 65¢ $101 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $58 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $204 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $4 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 74¢ $195 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records