Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d67…002a crypto 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (261 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-4%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%150W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day260.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (261 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 61% -12.6%
≤30d 210 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 61% -12.6%
≤90d 210 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 61% -12.6%
all 210 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 61% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover260.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 61% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 38% -21.0%
15% -33.1% 18% -28.6%
20% -39.6% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses150 / 60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day260.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 82¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.23 (match) · 462 history records