Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d64…d709 weather 97 markets active 23h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$29
other 4% +$1
politics 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 13% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 92 -21.4% -28.8% 13% 0% -12.1%
all 92 -21.4% -28.8% 13% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 0% -12.1%
10% -35.7% 0% -20.5%
15% -41.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -47.6% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 80
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage57d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No 96¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4? Jun 05 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 31 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 15? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 14? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 33°F or below on May 6? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 5? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 5? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 4? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.63 · official $62.63 (match) · 314 history records