Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d64…1f81 crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$873 (-7%) realized −$1,268 · open +$395
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%51W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$367
7 days−$376
14 days−$376
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$331
weather 2% −$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.6% -38.2% 39% 17% -26.0%
≤30d 18 -31.6% -38.2% 39% 17% -26.0%
≤90d 18 -31.6% -38.2% 39% 17% -26.0%
all 81 -12.4% -20.8% 63% 31% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 31% -16.7%
10% -28.4% 16% -24.7%
15% -35.3% 10% -31.9%
20% -41.6% 6% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$67 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$1,268
Unrealized+$395
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses51 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage123d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 0¢ 82¢ $0 $395 +$395 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $312 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $106 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $117 +$38 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $571 +$51 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$62 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $103 −$65 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 22 $140 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 22 $117 +$23 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 22 $105 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 22 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 22 $181 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 22 $244 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 22 $92 +$36 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 22 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 22 $66 +$24 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 22 $58 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 22 $35 +$23 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 22 $73 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 22 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 22 $27 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 22 $364 −$338 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 22 $234 +$31 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 22 $323 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 22 $317 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 22 $301 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 22 $271 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 22 $271 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 22 $241 +$30 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 22 $185 +$56 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 22 $228 −$43 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 22 $183 +$45 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 22 $107 +$76 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 22 $35 −$30 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 22 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 22 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $278 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $223 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $91 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $122 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $144 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $40 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $77 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $319 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $301 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $303 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $269 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $71 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $99 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.97 · official $0.00 · 174 history records