Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d64…8dd6 sports 4 markets active 12d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$18,790 (+26%) realized +$18,790 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$18,167per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Fees−$1,487est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17,959
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +35.4% +22.5% 50% 50% +12.8%
≤90d 4 +35.4% +22.5% 50% 50% +12.8%
all 4 +35.4% +22.5% 50% 50% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.5% 50% +12.8%
10% +10.8% 50% +2.0%
15% ← realistic here +0.1% 50% -7.8%
20% -9.7% 50% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
46.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17,504 vs −$8,525 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18,790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1,487
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18,167
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $33,878 −$9,407 -28%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $23,921 +$22,256 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 10 $7,642 −$7,642 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $7,227 +$12,752 +176%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 17¢ $3,828 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 52¢ $2,984 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $3,014 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $3,009 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $2,998 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3,048 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3,036 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $2,556 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3,991 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $5 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $6 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $5 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $2 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $3 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $80 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $264 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $5 11d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records