Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d63…131c world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$382 (-22%) realized −$175 · open −$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$282
crypto 22% −$148
other 20% −$34
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.9% +2.1% 67% 67% -0.6%
≤30d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 57% -1.2%
≤90d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 57% -1.2%
all 28 -54.6% -58.9% 21% 21% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.9% 21% -25.1%
10% -62.8% 21% -32.3%
15% -66.4% 18% -38.8%
20% -69.7% 18% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$39 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage159d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-63%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $185 $2 −$183 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$26 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $194 +$102 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 04 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $200 +$103 +52%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $98 +$328 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026? Jan 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $100 −$92 -92%
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $51 −$51 -100%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $158 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 102d
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 102d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 58¢ $120 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $20 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $100 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 109d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $175 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $6 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 113d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 18¢ $5 113d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $98 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 36¢ $51 149d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 149d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 151d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $65 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 157d
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.58 · official $37.58 (match) · 42 history records