Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d61…1e17 crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+0%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%61W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,552per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$104
other 5% −$6
world 3% +$3
sports 3% −$2
tech 2% +$2
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.5% -15.4% 0% 0% -15.4%
≤30d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 67 -0.0% -9.6% 91% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,155) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.93 per $1 lost it wins $8.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses61 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage235d
Avg bet$1,552
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 17 $55 −$4 -6%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $3,214 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $3,211 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $3,205 +$6 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $3,202 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $3,199 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $3,196 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $3,193 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $3,190 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 09 $3,187 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $3,184 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $3,181 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $3,178 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $3,175 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $3,172 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $3,163 +$10 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 23-29? Mar 30 $3,158 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $3,155 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $3,149 +$6 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 25? Mar 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on March 25? Mar 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 25? Mar 26 $252 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 25? Mar 26 $965 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $1,126 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $1,125 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? Mar 20 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 17? Mar 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $1,020 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Mar 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,692 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $1,689 +$2 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$530 on the final day of trading of th Jan 10 $1,689 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 7? Jan 08 $1,687 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $651 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $938 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,684 +$2 +0%
Will Meta dip to $560 in December? Jan 01 $1,682 +$2 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of December? Jan 01 $1,681 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,679 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,677 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 06 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch SELL No 85¢ $51 1h
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $47 2h
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $7 2h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $44 16d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $45 18d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $37 31d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $3,214 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,211 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $3,205 61d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $3,202 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $3,199 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $3,196 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,193 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,190 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $3,187 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $3,184 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $3,181 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $3,178 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $3,175 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $3,172 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3,163 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $3,158 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $3,155 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,149 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $500 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $252 84d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $87 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records