Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d5e…0d8f other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$198 (-1%) realized −$1,066 · open +$868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$843per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$5,387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$1,125
14 days−$1,125
30 days−$1,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$369
sports 39% −$1,083
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.1%
≤30d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.1%
≤90d 8 -32.8% -39.2% 0% 0% -27.1%
all 9 -29.2% -35.9% 0% 0% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 0% -26.3%
10% -42.0% 0% -33.3%
15% -47.6% 0% -39.8%
20% -52.8% 0% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$208 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$5,387
Realized−$1,066
Unrealized+$868
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage323d
Avg bet$843
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,600 $1,946 +$346 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1,320 $1,896 +$576 (+44%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $458 $478 +$20 (+4%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $382 $350 −$32 (-8%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $274 $260 −$14 (-5%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $236 $216 −$20 (-8%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $163 $162 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $85 $78 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $124 −$22 -18%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $312 −$86 -27%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $885 −$82 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,329 −$890 -17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $355 −$46 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $197 −$193 -98%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $982 −$80 -8%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $382 −$269 -70%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $442 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $102 40m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $102 41m
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $66 43m
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $282 1h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $393 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $207 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $114 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $227 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $387 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $180 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $83 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $602 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $66 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $799 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $804 8h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 8h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $293 9h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $129 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $72 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $220 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $238 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $78 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $76 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $44 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $724 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 22¢ $699 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,386.59 · official $5,386.59 (match) · 144 history records