Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d5b…4ed8 other 109 markets active 3h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$21
politics 23% −$8
sports 5% +$8
economics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +1.1% -8.5% 12% 7% -9.6%
all 106 +1.1% -8.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage96d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 46¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $346 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $334 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $294 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 17 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $551 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $579 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $297 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $291 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $506 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $16 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $191 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.86 · official $261.86 (match) · 355 history records