Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d59…31dc sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$494 (-1%) realized −$511 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%92W / 74L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$4,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days+$417
14 days+$782
30 days+$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$740
other 37% −$1,175
politics 1% +$82
culture 0% +$10
world 0% +$48
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 71% 71% +8.6%
≤30d 54 +10.2% -0.3% 63% 59% -4.5%
≤90d 61 -1.8% -11.2% 56% 52% -6.1%
all 166 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 52% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 52% -10.6%
10% -18.3% 47% -19.2%
15% -26.2% 38% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$119 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$4,596
Realized−$511
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses92 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions4
Markets (closed)166 / 183
History coverage157d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,881 $1,876 −$5 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,371 $1,366 −$5 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,320 $1,345 +$25 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $432 +$120 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $192 −$191 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$242 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $276 +$124 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $325 +$175 +54%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $373 +$127 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $586 −$584 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $223 −$3 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $216 +$184 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $345 +$155 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $390 +$409 +105%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $2 +$1 +84%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $220 −$219 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $195 −$195 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $199 +$171 +86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $203 +$195 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $27 +$173 +650%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $68 +$32 +48%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $257 +$89 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,007 +$343 +34%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) Jun 06 $69 +$30 +44%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $255 −$253 -99%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $252 +$148 +59%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $95 −$94 -98%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $215 +$185 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $476 −$476 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $309 −$306 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 04 $54 −$53 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $176 +$176 +100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $1,185 +$300 +25%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $862 +$138 +16%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $263 −$260 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime? Jun 02 $192 −$190 -99%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $228 +$72 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1,350 +$148 +11%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 01 $89 −$20 -23%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,001 +$198 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $405 +$283 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $507 +$453 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $238 −$190 -80%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $306 −$300 -98%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 May 29 $508 −$500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $308 +$95 +31%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $36 +$13 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,407 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,926 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,354 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Nor BUY 24¢ $220 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $30 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $9 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $195 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $198 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 33¢ $306 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $66 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $16 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $7 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $49 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $54 36h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O BUY 27¢ $204 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay BUY 14¢ $154 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Haiti: BUY 14¢ $154 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Raúl Jiménez: 1+ BUY 19¢ $143 3d
Son Heungmin: 2+ shots AND Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots AND Will Switzerl BUY 10¢ $100 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Son He BUY 26¢ $204 3d
Son Heungmin: 2+ shots AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland v BUY 26¢ $225 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY 32¢ $184 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams BUY 26¢ $164 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Wil BUY 18¢ $225 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $304 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 69¢ $276 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $325 5d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $37 5d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $143 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,595.85 · official $4,810.85 · 486 history records