Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d59…d2bc crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,192 (+29%) realized +$4,192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%46W / 29L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,783
7 days+$3,760
14 days+$3,749
30 days+$3,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3,721
other 1% +$40
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -5.0% -14.0% 63% 56% +13.8%
≤30d 75 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 53% +13.7%
≤90d 75 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 53% +13.7%
all 75 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 53% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 53% +13.7%
10% -24.7% 39% +2.8%
15% -32.0% 29% -7.1%
20% -38.7% 15% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$29 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.48 per $1 lost it wins $5.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4,192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses46 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage7d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $56 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $112 +$27 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $307 −$197 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $204 +$81 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $207 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $2,069 +$1,901 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $848 +$100 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $1,522 +$377 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $1,023 +$469 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1,003 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $1,008 +$117 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $811 +$192 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $688 +$123 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $374 +$306 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $333 +$42 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $416 −$70 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $669 −$259 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $586 +$89 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $428 +$155 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $335 +$88 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $235 +$108 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $211 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $112 +$62 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $81 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $97 −$35 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$18 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$32 +77%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 +$42 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $24 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $24 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $111 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $332 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $964 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $774 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $848 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1,522 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1,023 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,003 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1,008 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $811 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $811 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $688 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $43 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.20 (match) · 221 history records