Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d59…b1b3 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$46
14 days+$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$64
sports 31% −$11
world 16% −$38
crypto 8% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.4% -4.6% 33% 33% +31.9%
≤30d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 26% 26% -15.5%
≤90d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 26% 26% -15.5%
all 23 -16.6% -24.5% 26% 26% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 26% -15.5%
10% -31.8% 26% -23.6%
15% -38.4% 26% -31.0%
20% -44.4% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 30
History coverage17d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+134%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $15 +$53 +347%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $7 +$11 +149%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 +$31 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$12 +288%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? AN BUY $5 58m
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? A BUY $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $15 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 30¢ $10 5d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 100¢ $18 5d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $5 5d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 30¢ $2 5d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 45¢ $5 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 41¢ $15 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 14¢ $3 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 31¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 59¢ $9 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $10 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 29¢ $5 7d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 15¢ $1 7d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 22¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.08 · official $65.78 · 74 history records