Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d58…80b2 crypto 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (276 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-3%) realized −$178 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%128W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day275.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$196
sports 24% −$391
other 18% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (276 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -15.5%
≤30d 279 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -15.5%
≤90d 279 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -15.5%
all 279 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover275.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 45% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -23.6%
15% -29.9% 43% -31.0%
20% -36.8% 39% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses128 / 151
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)279 / 288
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day275.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 60¢ $83 $95 +$12 (+14%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 86¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+42%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Over 46¢ 100¢ $11 $25 +$13 (+117%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 30¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $46 +$26 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$51 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $34 +$118 +348%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$22 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$26 +50%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $69 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$23 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$22 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$11 +27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$6 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$51 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $80 −$77 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $54 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$27 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$45 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$9 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.54 · official $182.54 (match) · 1274 history records