Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d57…bfc5 politics 598 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (204 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$40,983 (+20%) realized +$40,462 · open +$521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +296% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +205% what you keep after slip
Net edge+205%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate77%124W / 38L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day203.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$174,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% +$10,045
other 17% −$2,540
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (204 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+258.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +290.8% +253.5% 76% 43% -2.8%
≤30d 162 +296.5% +258.7% 77% 43% -2.4%
≤90d 162 +296.5% +258.7% 77% 43% -2.4%
all 162 +296.5% +258.7% 77% 43% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover203.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +258.7% 43% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here +224.4% 36% -11.7%
15% +193.1% 30% -20.2%
20% +164.3% 28% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +296% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +220% → late +373% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$35 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.29 per $1 lost it wins $6.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$174,562
Realized+$40,462
Unrealized+$521
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses124 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions500
Markets (closed)162 / 598
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$345
Trades / day203.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? No 94¢ 96¢ $3,806 $3,867 +$61 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,260 $3,388 +$129 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,226 $3,217 −$10 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat? Yes 87¢ 93¢ $1,902 $2,052 +$149 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $2,127 $2,005 −$122 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-05 House seat? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $1,926 $1,983 +$57 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $1,699 $1,729 +$31 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-06 House seat? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,625 $1,672 +$48 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,436 $1,470 +$35 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-11 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $1,371 $1,400 +$29 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-09 House seat? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,354 $1,369 +$15 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-18 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $1,309 $1,339 +$30 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,321 $1,333 +$12 (+1%)
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,296 $1,310 +$14 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-09 House seat? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,198 $1,266 +$67 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1,224 $1,240 +$16 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-01 House seat? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,177 $1,197 +$20 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-07 House seat? No 82¢ 84¢ $1,153 $1,188 +$34 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1,148 $1,150 +$3 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the OH-12 House seat? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1,126 $1,135 +$9 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1,090 $1,104 +$14 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,091 $1,097 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1,095 $1,092 −$4 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-08 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1,050 $1,058 +$7 (+1%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $1,034 $1,048 +$14 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt Jun 28 $29 +$93 +318%
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte Jun 28 $2 −$1 -44%
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St Jun 28 $11 +$48 +448%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-07 House seat? Jun 28 $367 +$1 +0%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-10 House seat? Jun 28 $407 +$10 +2%
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 28 $135 +$26 +19%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat? Jun 28 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? Jun 28 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? Jun 28 $820 −$21 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat? Jun 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat? Jun 28 $492 +$1 +0%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat? Jun 28 $37 −$7 -18%
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? Jun 28 $537 +$14 +2%
Will the Republican Party win the MA-08 House seat? Jun 28 $13 +$38 +290%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-31 House seat? Jun 28 $8 +$42 +543%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat? Jun 28 $54 +$4 +8%
Will the Republican Party win the MI-06 House seat? Jun 28 $3,077 +$144 +5%
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-02 House seat? Jun 27 $2,349 +$65 +3%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 27 $200 −$4 -2%
Will Tim Walz resign by July 31? Jun 27 $181 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by July 31? Jun 27 $0 $0 +20%
Will the Republican Party win the OR-01 House seat? Jun 27 $4 +$69 +1900%
Will the Republican Party win the IN-07 House seat? Jun 27 $0 +$502 +167598%
Will the Republican Party win the NM-01 House seat? Jun 27 $0 +$5 +1378%
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-02 House seat? Jun 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-03 House seat? Jun 27 $18 +$5 +27%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat? Jun 27 $23 +$60 +262%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? Jun 27 $21 −$15 -72%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-10 House seat? Jun 27 $2 +$6 +363%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-04 House seat? Jun 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-06 House seat? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-01 House seat? Jun 27 $43 +$55 +128%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-02 House seat? Jun 27 $0 +$100 +27678%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat? Jun 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-05 House seat? Jun 27 $10 +$173 +1665%
Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat? Jun 27 $540 −$15 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat? Jun 27 $6 +$267 +4154%
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-01 House seat? Jun 27 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the Republican Party win the MI-08 House seat? Jun 27 $631 +$14 +2%
Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat? Jun 27 $645 +$2 +0%
Will the Republican Party win the OR-05 House seat? Jun 27 $565 +$2 +0%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? Jun 27 $4,763 +$287 +6%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat? Jun 26 $986 +$35 +4%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat? Jun 26 $447 −$20 -4%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat? Jun 26 $112 −$12 -11%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-33 House seat? Jun 26 $1 +$24 +1900%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-41 House seat? Jun 26 $0 +$6 +1567%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-42 House seat? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-30 House seat? Jun 26 $0 +$388 +107650%
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat? Jun 26 $325 +$75 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt SELL No 2¢ $7 18m
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St BUY Yes 6¢ $6 23m
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St BUY Yes 6¢ $4 23m
Will the Republican Party win the VA-07 House seat? BUY No 88¢ $88 25m
Will the Republican Party win the VA-10 House seat? BUY No 90¢ $90 25m
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat? BUY No 87¢ $83 25m
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m BUY Yes 4¢ $0 25m
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m BUY Yes 5¢ $10 25m
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte BUY No 4¢ $1 34m
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt BUY No 5¢ $10 35m
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt BUY No 6¢ $13 35m
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 58m
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 1h
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat? BUY No 35¢ $18 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat? BUY No 23¢ $44 1h
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? SELL No 22¢ $26 2h
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? BUY Yes 93¢ $232 2h
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? BUY No 6¢ $19 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat? BUY No 30¢ $1 2h
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 2h
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $7 3h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat? SELL No 24¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat? SELL No 24¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $0 4h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat? BUY No 35¢ $3 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174,561.92 · official $179,002.07 · 3500 history records