Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d57…04f0 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%68W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$16
other 25% +$1
tech 4% +$2
economics 1% +$2
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 20% -6.4%
all 73 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 4% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -8.0%
10% -16.8% 0% -16.8%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.68 per $1 lost it wins $16.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses68 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage487d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 09 $62 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Apr 23 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 January 5-11? Jan 22 $29 $0 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jan 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 06 $17 $0 +0%
BNB all time high by December 31? Jan 06 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7? Dec 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in November 2025? Dec 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 01 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 09 $14 +$1 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 09 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? Oct 18 $50 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Oct 05 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 September 8–14? Sep 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? Sep 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 1–7? Sep 10 $11 $0 +1%
Solana reach 240 September 1–7? Sep 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $3700 August 11–17? Sep 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 04 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 11 $6 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $9 $0 +2%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +1%
Solana all time high in May? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $85 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $84 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $62 54d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? BUY No 98¢ $75 96d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $75 150d
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 100¢ $44 166d
Will Solana reach $200 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $29 166d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $16 187d
BNB all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $25 197d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $14 197d
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 197d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 201d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 217d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 224d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 224d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 224d
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 92¢ $14 246d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 258d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 258d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? SELL No 98¢ $39 258d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? BUY No 99¢ $50 258d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? SELL No 99¢ $50 258d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $54 258d
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 268d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 99¢ $15 283d
Will Solana reach $270 September 8–14? BUY No 99¢ $11 283d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $21 283d
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? BUY No 100¢ $20 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.96 · official $84.96 (match) · 157 history records