Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d56…4667 crypto 1174 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$4,648 (+88%) realized +$4,620 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +112% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR82%break-even
Win rate83%876W / 174L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day121.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,245
7 days+$1,504
14 days+$1,934
30 days+$2,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$1,088
other 20% +$569
sports 0% +$9
world 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +82%
net ROI/market (all)+91.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 +172.7% +146.8% 97% 95% +71.2%
≤30d 1050 +111.8% +91.7% 83% 82% +45.8%
≤90d 1050 +111.8% +91.7% 83% 82% +45.8%
all 1050 +111.8% +91.7% 83% 82% +45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +91.7% 82% +45.8%
10% ← realistic here +73.3% 79% +31.8%
15% +56.6% 67% +19.1%
20% +41.2% 55% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +112% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +170% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.49 per $1 lost it wins $6.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,695
Realized+$4,620
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses876 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1050 / 1174
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day121.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1050 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 90¢ $5 $33 +$28 (+552%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +224%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +107%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +126%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +1224%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +233%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +729%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +154%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +343%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +349%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +99%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +27%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +43%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +281%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +334%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +150%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +527%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +228%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +198%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +302%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +384%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +408%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +130%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +113%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +376%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +97%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +233%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +269%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +208%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +69%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +75%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +163%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +202%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +154%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +629%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +381%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +133%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +420%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +522%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +158%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +357%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,695.41 · official $3,528.60 · 3500 history records