Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d54…ee01 crypto 1527 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-0%) realized −$262 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate87%1448W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$762
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 412 -31.9% -38.4% 63% 9% -49.1%
≤30d 1451 -8.5% -17.2% 86% 10% -21.9%
≤90d 1664 -7.4% -16.2% 87% 10% -20.4%
all 1664 -7.4% -16.2% 87% 10% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 10% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 0% -28.0%
15% -31.6% 0% -34.9%
20% -38.3% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$65 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$262
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1448 / 216
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1664 / 1527
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1664 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Yes 61¢ 18¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 12AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10PM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 6AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 2AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 11PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 2AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 12AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 3PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 9PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 9AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 21? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 1PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10AM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 5AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 10AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 3PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 9PM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 11PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 9PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 2PM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3AM ET Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 10AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 6PM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 1AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 6PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 11AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 10AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 4PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $46 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $46 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $45 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $43 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $47 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $43 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $44 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $46 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $46 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 3500 history records