Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d4f…6e52 crypto 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$326 (-4%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%153W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$292
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$944
sports 2% +$123
other 1% −$34
culture 0% +$34
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -34.0% -40.3% 26% 21% -22.1%
≤30d 86 -34.0% -40.3% 26% 21% -22.1%
≤90d 278 -23.6% -30.8% 36% 32% -17.9%
all 412 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 33% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 33% -18.0%
10% -34.4% 30% -25.8%
15% -40.8% 24% -33.0%
20% -46.6% 18% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses153 / 259
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)412 / 414
History coverage118d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 33¢ 32¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $49 −$24 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$53 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$26 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$10 +47%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$27 -95%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $76 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $99 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $38 −$15 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$11 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$17 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$10 -33%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Scotland vs Brazi Jun 25 $26 +$72 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$26 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $44 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $54 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $54 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $13 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $10 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.85 · official $45.85 (match) · 1342 history records