Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d4e…6478 sports 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,930 (+2%) realized +$3,930 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%90W / 106L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,330per market
Trades / day91.4pace
Fees−$4,749est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$34,596
other 40% +$7,529
world 1% −$44
crypto 0% +$755
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +68.5% +52.5% 38% 26% +18.0%
≤30d 127 +42.0% +28.5% 47% 32% +10.6%
≤90d 196 +23.9% +12.1% 46% 29% +7.0%
all 196 +23.9% +12.1% 46% 29% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 29% +7.0%
10% +1.3% 25% -3.2%
15% ← realistic here -8.4% 16% -12.6%
20% -17.4% 12% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,499) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$876 vs −$339 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,930
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses90 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$4,749
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1,330
Trades / day91.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $167 +$1,686 +1011%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,773 +$1,404 +51%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,629 +$40,310 +716%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5,487 −$416 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12,319 +$2,034 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,627 −$647 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,976 +$832 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4,162 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $35 −$9 -25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $781 −$84 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,501 −$2,474 -45%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,298 +$40 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,047 +$250 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6,904 +$766 +11%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $93 −$8 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $438 +$2,995 +684%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,703 +$882 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,414 +$1,389 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,058 −$13 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $399 +$7 +2%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $874 −$700 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,044 +$76 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $645 +$247 +38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,505 −$537 -36%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $143 +$37 +26%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $136 −$1 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,315 +$416 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $145 +$4 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,124 −$2,017 -95%
Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,031 −$154 -15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $187 −$17 -9%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $322 +$2 +1%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,971 −$1,180 -60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,156 +$1,300 +60%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $222 +$76 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,303 −$10 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,001 −$51 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $483 −$33 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $309 −$300 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $509 −$62 -12%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $832 +$52 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $273 −$30 -11%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,179 −$1,161 -98%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $305 +$16 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $65 −$15 -22%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $399 +$39 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $345 40m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $395 40m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $42 40m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $5 40m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $58 40m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $130 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $49 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $66 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $33 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $2 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $2 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $17 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $431 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $36 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $104 41m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $1,059 41m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $5 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $3 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $115 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $35 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $941 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $252 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $21 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $3,569 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3122 history records