Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d4a…7228 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-5%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%26W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$109
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 27% -25.3%
≤30d 52 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 27% -25.3%
≤90d 52 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 27% -25.3%
all 52 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 27% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 27% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 17% -32.4%
15% -42.1% 12% -39.0%
20% -47.8% 6% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$42 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $59 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records