Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d43…d0dd crypto 1241 markets active 2d ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,155 (-12%) realized −$1,139 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate52%645W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day66.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$78
14 days−$182
30 days−$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$698
other 26% −$271
sports 15% −$93
weather 1% −$21
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -18.1% -25.9% 36% 12% -22.0%
≤30d 1000 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 15% -18.5%
≤90d 1231 -13.6% -21.8% 52% 21% -19.6%
all 1231 -13.6% -21.8% 52% 21% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 21% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 15% -27.3%
15% -36.1% 10% -34.3%
20% -42.4% 6% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,139
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses645 / 586
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1231 / 1241
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day66.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 98¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 2 Club The Strongest? No 100¢ 50¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be less than $900M at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 96¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$3 +57%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Timofeeva vs. Zarazua: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 0 - 2 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 2 - 2 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 1 - 2 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 0 - 1 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 1 - 3 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will IFK Mariehamn win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 0 - 3 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4 −$1 -40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 11 $3 −$1 -41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 62¢ $4 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 63¢ $4 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 58¢ $3 2d
Timofeeva vs. Zarazua: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Over 65¢ $4 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 66¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 34¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 64¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $3 2d
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $1 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 SELL Over 58¢ $4 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 59¢ $4 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 59¢ $5 2d
Timofeeva vs. Zarazua: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 2d
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.93 · official $44.91 (match) · 3500 history records