Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6d42…22a5 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-25%) realized −$113 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$99
sports 47% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$30 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia BUY 16¢ $24 2d
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 30¢ $26 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 10d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $25 10d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.37 · official $294.37 (match) · 9 history records