Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d41…f085 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-1%) realized −$106 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$65
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$865
world 23% +$332
other 20% +$185
crypto 4% +$40
politics 4% +$118
finance 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 33% -28.4%
≤30d 15 -16.0% -24.0% 67% 40% -14.3%
≤90d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 79% 39% -10.7%
all 28 -0.6% -10.1% 79% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -10.7%
10% -18.7% 18% -19.3%
15% -26.5% 7% -27.1%
20% -33.7% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$739) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$240 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage46d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Isurus 63¢ 62¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Eternal Fire 68¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 52¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $37 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $19 +$15 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $140 −$53 -38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 +$6 +11%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,897 −$1,308 -69%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $1,832 +$111 +6%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff May 28 $739 +$118 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $1,585 +$180 +11%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $1,160 +$139 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,137 +$258 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,027 +$97 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $474 +$118 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $451 +$23 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $396 +$24 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $381 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $350 +$32 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 20 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 20 $51 +$5 +10%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $250 +$28 +11%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $242 +$7 +3%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $237 +$10 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $113 +$37 +33%
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the May 11 $84 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 63¢ $62 59m
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 50¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 48¢ $37 9h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $13 9h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 68¢ $25 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $19 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $87 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $140 8d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $66 8d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 89¢ $59 8d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 18d
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL FaZe 27¢ $589 26d
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY FaZe 86¢ $1,897 26d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 98¢ $1,942 26d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? BUY Up 92¢ $1,832 26d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $857 26d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 86¢ $739 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $1,714 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 90¢ $52 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $51 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 84¢ $1,398 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $33 26d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $102 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Nongshim Red Force 100¢ $1,299 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 89¢ $124 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 89¢ $8 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 89¢ $18 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 89¢ $162 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.43 · official $95.43 (match) · 85 history records