Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d41…946e other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$22
politics 22% −$12
sports 21% −$8
crypto 10% $0
world 5% −$2
finance 4% $0
culture 4% −$2
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 69 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 127 -0.5% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 105
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage100d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $83 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $58 −$3 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $161 −$2 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $156 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $408 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $94 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $39 35m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 1h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 7h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $57 7h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $57 11h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $62 12h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $62 19h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $42 20h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $43 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 35h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $56 36h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $56 42h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $44 43h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $44 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 88¢ $55 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $58 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $59 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $9 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.19 · official $39.19 (match) · 467 history records