Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d3f…bf37 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$103 (+15%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.7% +2.8% 63% 53% -2.5%
≤30d 19 +13.7% +2.8% 63% 53% -2.5%
≤90d 19 +13.7% +2.8% 63% 53% -2.5%
all 19 +13.7% +2.8% 63% 53% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 53% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 53% -11.9%
15% -16.0% 47% -20.4%
20% -24.2% 42% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$32 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$59 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$24 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$37 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$18 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $79 −$43 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $39 +$72 +184%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $8 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $37 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $28 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.82 · official $56.82 (match) · 47 history records