Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d3f…50bc other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,569 (-49%) realized −$8,460 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%9W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$9,363
world 8% +$905
sports 5% +$117
crypto 2% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 15% -59.6%
≤30d 60 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 15% -59.6%
≤90d 60 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 15% -59.6%
all 60 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 15% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 15% -59.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 15% -63.5%
15% -35.6% 13% -67.0%
20% -41.9% 10% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$264 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$909
Realized−$8,460
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses9 / 51
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)60 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $100 $337 +$237 (+237%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $100 $225 +$125 (+125%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 26¢ $55 $180 +$125 (+225%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $42 $156 +$113 (+268%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$740 +721%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $308 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 +$2,205 +2143%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$73 -71%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$50 -48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$28 -28%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 +$350 +340%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $176 +$77 +44%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 +$173 +169%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 +$689 +671%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $80 −$78 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $141 −$137 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,030 −$5,000 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,993 −$1,953 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $286 −$280 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $403 +$117 +29%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.26 · official $909.26 (match) · 102 history records