Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d3d…1491 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$958 (+22%) realized +$958 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 42L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$929
world 16% $0
other 7% +$29
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 17% 0% -43.6%
≤30d 8 -24.7% -31.9% 25% 0% -42.7%
≤90d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 31% 19% +24.4%
all 76 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 42% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 42% +10.2%
10% -21.7% 39% -0.3%
15% -29.3% 33% -10.0%
20% -36.2% 26% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$28 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$958
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage139d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $325 +$449 +138%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 25 $51 −$51 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $609 $0 -0%
Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 24 $258 +$342 +133%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: NSN vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asi Mar 22 $102 −$2 -2%
Miami Open: Zizou Bergs vs Tomas Etcheverry Mar 22 $88 +$112 +127%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Mar 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 13 $5 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $36 +$10 +28%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $49 +$7 +15%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $158 −$158 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $50 +$31 +61%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $252 +$148 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $112 +$168 +150%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 09 $70 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $70 +$97 +139%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $30 +$40 +133%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 06 $20 +$9 +47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $51 −$34 -67%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $50 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs home (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser Feb 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $50 +$18 +35%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Rotterdam Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Feb 12 $40 +$8 +19%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 12 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Dallas Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Reilly Opelka Feb 11 $51 −$1 -2%
Rotterdam Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Rinderknech Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $37 +$63 +170%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Feb 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Feb 10 $79 −$79 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Pla Feb 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No 41¢ $12 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $13 1h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July SELL No 89¢ $44 1h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July BUY No 90¢ $45 6h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $8 24h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $8 24h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 26h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $0 26h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $0 26h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 26h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $7 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 43¢ $17 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 43¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 18d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Hawks 42¢ $199 83d
Bulls vs. 76ers BUY Bulls 32¢ $96 84d
Lakers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 17¢ $51 84d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Hawks 42¢ $126 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $92 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $517 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $609 84d
Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini BUY Jelena Ostapenko 43¢ $129 86d
Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini BUY Jelena Ostapenko 43¢ $129 86d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY NRG 24¢ $24 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records