Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d3d…cd8d crypto 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$142 (+3%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%99W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day73.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$365
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -13.3% -21.5% 53% 48% -17.8%
≤30d 188 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 48% -18.3%
≤90d 188 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 48% -18.3%
all 188 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 48% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 48% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 31% -26.1%
15% -36.2% 20% -33.3%
20% -42.5% 13% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses99 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day73.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$25 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $188 +$95 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $142 +$191 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $114 −$103 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $221 +$119 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $87 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $96 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $89 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $82 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $81 +$25 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $135 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$21 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$9 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $283 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 633 history records