Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d3c…8b2b sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$232 (-14%) realized −$220 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$45
world 27% −$116
other 21% −$147
politics 4% −$58
culture 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.1% -12.4% 33% 33% -8.6%
≤30d 25 -7.0% -15.9% 32% 32% -16.7%
≤90d 31 -13.7% -21.9% 29% 29% -24.6%
all 31 -13.7% -21.9% 29% 29% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 29% -24.6%
10% -29.4% 29% -31.8%
15% -36.2% 29% -38.4%
20% -42.5% 26% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$35 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage65d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 40¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 25¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$19 -88%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$69 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 +$41 +78%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $43 −$40 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$15 -56%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$57 +112%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $37 −$35 -94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$54 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $53 +$56 +106%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 +$31 +152%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 −$51 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 −$51 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 +$88 +344%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $49 +$75 +152%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? May 23 $92 −$89 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 11 $137 −$46 -34%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 11 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $250 −$102 -41%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 17 $70 +$32 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $21 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $53 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $101 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $28 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $32 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $51 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $107 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $11 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 29h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 11¢ $37 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $27 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $8 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $51 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $32 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.58 · official $93.31 · 96 history records