Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d3a…7f96 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$243 (+18%) realized +$244 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$146
politics 27% −$1
other 16% −$12
finance 11% +$12
sports 8% +$85
tech 5% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 37% +9.9%
≤90d 35 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 43% +11.3%
all 42 +8.6% -1.7% 64% 48% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 48% +6.4%
10% -11.1% 43% -3.8%
15% -19.7% 43% -13.1%
20% -27.6% 38% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage112d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $376 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 30 $70 +$50 +71%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 30 $115 +$85 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 22 $130 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $70 +$30 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 20 $41 +$36 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7AM ET Apr 04 $17 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6AM ET Mar 27 $3 +$7 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 26 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 20 $14 +$6 +45%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 19 $80 +$120 +150%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 07 $62 +$9 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Mar 06 $154 +$12 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $188 47m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $188 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $188 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 100¢ $5 44h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $1 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 96¢ $7 16d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 96¢ $12 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 90 history records