Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d3a…9410 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,093 (-11%) realized −$1,092 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%53W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$1,095
crypto 41% +$2
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 -0.1% -9.7% 98% 0% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -23.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -30.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -37.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1,099 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$2,514
Realized−$1,092
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses53 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage612d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,241 $1,242 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,013 $1,012 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $260 $260 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Feb 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Feb 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 17 $182 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,014 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $260 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,241 1h
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $10 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 248d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $8 248d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 98¢ $3 248d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 248d
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 248d
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 248d
Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 248d
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 248d
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 248d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 248d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 248d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 248d
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 248d
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 248d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 248d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 248d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 248d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 248d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,513.91 · official $2,513.91 (match) · 121 history records