Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d38…5019 world 36 markets active 3d ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-5%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$34
other 32% $0
politics 14% +$1
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 0% -19.4%
≤90d 11 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 0% -19.4%
all 36 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 0% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -14.2%
10% -20.3% 0% -22.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -29.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage291d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 −$34 -93%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $8 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $8 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $8 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $7 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $2 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $3 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $0 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $23 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $12 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $2 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $36 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records