Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d34…2fe5 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-16%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$31
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -29.8% -36.5% 32% 29% -33.3%
≤30d 88 -24.8% -32.0% 36% 35% -25.1%
≤90d 88 -24.8% -32.0% 36% 35% -25.1%
all 88 -24.8% -32.0% 36% 35% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 35% -25.1%
10% -38.5% 34% -32.2%
15% -44.4% 34% -38.8%
20% -49.9% 34% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Down 42¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $11 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 154 history records