trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 67% | 0% | -7.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 29 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 48% | 3% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 3% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 3% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 0% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 26¢ | $26 | $20 | −$6 (-22%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 54¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $12 | +$1 | +6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 04 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 01 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 31 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 30 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 11 | $6 | +$2 | +25% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 02 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Aug 10 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jul 05 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 05 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 04 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Jul 04 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 04 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? | Jul 04 | $23 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 04 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | Jul 04 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 03 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 03 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jul 03 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Jun 24 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Apr 03 | $26 | $0 | +0% |