Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d34…dfb5 crypto 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,313 (+0%) realized +$3,700 · open −$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%219W / 52L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$3,186per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$5,849
other 10% +$216
sports 1% +$30
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 32% -10.8%
≤30d 150 -11.4% -19.8% 67% 24% -9.3%
≤90d 271 -3.5% -12.7% 81% 18% -8.8%
all 271 -3.5% -12.7% 81% 18% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 18% -8.8%
10% -21.1% 16% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.7% 14% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$3,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$101 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$3,700
Unrealized−$387
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses219 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)271 / 273
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$3,186
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $270 $13 −$256 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $140 $9 −$131 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $222 +$49 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $128 +$122 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $19,003 +$129 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $191 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $452 +$60 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $56 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$16 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$59 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$66 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $553 +$482 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $223 −$216 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $690 +$310 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$214 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $314 −$312 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $160 −$154 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5,306 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$39 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $58 +$42 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $990 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $54 +$36 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $11,968 +$12 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $181 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $71 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $41 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17,826 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $969 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $245 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $134 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.49 · official $22.49 (match) · 3500 history records