Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d33…5a14 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178 (-5%) realized −$210 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,844now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$234
14 days−$234
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$119
other 24% −$64
sports 9% −$188
crypto 8% +$2
world 2% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -46.8%
≤30d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -46.8%
≤90d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -46.8%
all 11 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 27% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 27% -46.8%
10% -49.0% 27% -51.9%
15% -53.9% 18% -56.5%
20% -58.5% 9% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$42 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,844
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)11 / 26
History coverage16d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$3 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $59 −$58 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$62 +128%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $67 −$67 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Jun 15 $42 −$5 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $44 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $154 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $48 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $59 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 59¢ $91 6h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 8h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 80¢ $181 11h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $110 11h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 11h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 12h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 15h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 18h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 19h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $97 19h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 20h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 85¢ $79 33h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 85¢ $35 33h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 36h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $80 37h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 37h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 85¢ $53 37h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 37h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 43h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 45h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 85¢ $12 45h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,844.47 · official $2,844.51 (match) · 86 history records